The Extra Point Where Have All the Points Gone?

Where Have All the Points Gone?

November 16, 2023

Through Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season, scoring has been at its lowest in over a decade with several dominant defenses and few high-scoring offenses.

What has changed this season? Here is a mid-year look at the 2023 NFL season

Scoring

The following table shows key scoring-related metrics through Week 10. The color of each cell corresponds to the relative rank (since 2003) of the 2023 season.

While first-half scoring has been close to the median across the last 20 seasons, third- and fourth-quarter scoring are closer to the bottom. For example, 12.0 points scored per fourth quarter is the lowest in the league since 2005. Drives per game are also low, meaning teams have fewer opportunities to convert a possession into a score.

While 3rd/4th-and-short success is in line with previous years, 3rd/4th-and-medium/long success have been historically low this season. The 2023 season is the first in 20+ years of play where the 3rd/4th-and-long (seven yards or more) conversion rate was less than 40%.

Quarterback Play

The second table focuses on quarterback play.

This season has featured 48 starting QBs, the sixth-most through Week 10. Sacks, scrambles, and average time to throw are all high, meaning QBs are holding on to the ball longer and either taking a sack or leaving the pocket.

While pass attempts over 20 yards have decreased to only 8.8 per game, passes that are behind the line of scrimmage have increased to 16.1 per game. With fewer deep passes, interceptions per game have decreased to 0.8 per game.

Other Metrics of Interest:

• NFL punting is the strongest it has been since at least 2003 (likely in NFL history) with 41.8 net yards per punt.
• Defensive pre-snap fouls per game is third lowest in the last 20 years with 1.6 per game.
• Onside kick recovery rate remains low (5.6%): This recovery rate follows in line with recent seasons under the 2018 kickoff alignment (13.5% recovery rate before 2018).

Overall, the average 2023 NFL game has been more conservative than previous years with fewer deep pass attempts and fewer frequent, longer drives. 

Will the second half of the 2023 NFL season look different?

Contributed by: Tom Bliss and Michael Lopez